Professor John M. Griffin (www.jgriffin.info)
Global trends and challenges lecture below.
|Introduction to foreign exchange markets||Solnik Ch. 1||L Notes 1|
Sept 8, 10
Exchange rate determination
|Solnik Ch. 2, 3
Extra or alternative reading.
|L Notes 2 Notes 3||HW #1 Part A due Thursday, Sept. 10, noon
Data for part 1A, part 1B
Sept 15, 17
|Exchange Rate Relations and Forecasting||Notes 4 Notes 5||HW1 Part B due Thursday, Sept. 17, noon|
Sept 22, 24
|Exchange rate forecasting||Notes 6||For Wednesday: For discussion–What is the assessment of the outlook for the $?
Frank Warnock, Federal Reserve, Bond Market Development! Thursday 10am, B74
hedged vs. unhedged returns
Sept 29, Oct 1
|International Markets and Diversification,||For Monday, Solnik Ch. 7 257-274
For Wednesday, Ch. 4
For Thursday, Optional:
|Notes 7 Notes 8||8. Welcome to bull country
Valuing markets via the equity premium.(From The Economist print edition) Jul 18th 1998. Evaluate a country analysis: Where to Invest, Converting Economic and currency information into useful information (each assignment is by an individual and not a group)Data for historical P/E and Returns for some countries
Due Wednesday Oct. 2
Oct 6, 8
|Diversification continued, International Momentum||optional on Momentum:
Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole, John Griffin, Susan Ji and Spencer Martin, forthcoming in the Journal of Finance.
“International Momentum Strategies” Rouwenhourst, Geert, Journal of Finance 53 (1998), 267-284.
|Momentum notes||Case: Alan Bain and the Price Momentum Strategy (Ivey)
Questions Due Monday: Oct. 13
Oct 13, 15
|Value Effects||For Wed. Read Solnik Ch. 7 (p. 241-273), 8 (299-320)
Fama and K. French, “Value and Growth: The International Evidence”, Journal of Finance, December 1998,
|Other International Strategies||Nice summary of Bubbles:
FEDThe first 7 pages of ..“Investor Behavior over the Rise and Fall of Nasdaq” John Griffin, Jeffrey Harris and Selim Topaloglu
Skim: Brunnermeier, Marcus K. and Stefan Nagel, 2002, Arbitrage and its limits: hedge funds and the technology bubble, forthcoming JF.
|Bubbles||No class Monday–SOM study day.
Case: Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo (HBS) Questions.
Due: Friday at 5pm., Oct 24
Oct 27, 29
|Practical International Investment Issues||For Wednesday. Solnik, Ch. 6 p. 218-223, Ch. 7, 261-273, Ch 8. 321-333.||Implementation Issues||Case discussion Monday!|
Nov 3, 5
|International Equity Financing||ADR primer||Huaneng Power International (Ivey) due Wed.
Kent Hargis from Bernstein to speak on Wed night. 7pm, A30
|International Investment Issues||Read: Goldman and Value
focus on valuation sections.
|Nov. 11 Tuesday:
James Shapiro from NYSE to speak on ADRs:
4:10pm to 6:30pm, A30
Nov 17, 19
|International Cost of Capital, Political Risk||Read…
Solnik Ch. 7, 155-172, Ch. 8, 317-321
1. Campbell R. Harvey, “The International Cost of Capital and Risk Calculator,”
2. Kent Hargis, first 7 pages of, The Goldman Model of Equity Cost of Capital.
Optional: Rene Stulz, The globalization of equity markets and the cost of capital.
Griffin, John, “Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country-Specific?” The Review of Financial Studies, 2002.
|CCap||Case: International cost of capital.
Dec 1, 3
|Currency Risk: Exposure
and Hedging Tools International big picture view of Global trade and finance
|Thursday, Chapter 4, 5 from O’Brien
Optional: “International competition and exchange rate shocks: A cross-country industry analysis” with René M. Stulz, 2001, The Review of Financial Studies 14, p. 215-241.
|Exchange rate Exposure Global Trends|
|14Dec 8||Optional: Introduction + Conclusion only:”International Portfolio Flows and Security Markets”, in International Capital Flows, edited by Martin Feldstein, University
Chicago Press, 1999, 257-293.
The Myth of Asia’s Miracle by Paul Krugman
Optional: Are Daily Cross-border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled? with Federico Nardari and René M. Stulz
|Review session Dec. 8||FINAL DEC 12|